The changes that started together with the advent of the government of Andrius Kubilius are described ambiguously. The reforms, carried out by the central-right coalition, could be evaluated while resting upon ideologies and the moods of people. There’s no politics that would please everybody. The leftists will not approve of the rightists and *vice versa*. Such is the political reality in all over the world.

The changes that so ideologically started in Lithuania are not very liberal. The wish to regulate the moral values by laws, the policies, oriented towards sudden increase of taxes and saving, raises a question where the liberals disappeared. The lack of the support to small and middle-sized businesses, the decrease of the taxes, social liberalism in the public sphere reflects on the liberal parties as a sign of conformism.

Resting upon the results of opinion polls, the majority of the people have negative attitudes towards the work of the contemporary government. It was so far no case when shrinking income of the people, increasing unemployment, growing state debt, budget and “Sodra” deficits as well as falling state borrowing and competition ratings, also – riots in front of the Parliament had improved the ratings for any political forces.

On the other hand, governing a state in the course of economic crisis is a big challenge. And it is possible to have only theoretical considerations if tax reduction or/and economy stimulation while preserving the working places would be a better way out. Furthermore, some observers claim that the situation could be worse or that among the Baltic states we probably look the best. The Conservative government does not lack ambitions and its leader is an honest man, however, as it is claimed, being a good man is not a profession.

Sometimes the implementation of changes looked like settling political accounts or floating in a fog without a wheelman. Borrowing with high interest rates without looking for alternatives, the election of Arūnas Valinskas into the post of the Speaker of the Seimas [Lithuanian parliament] and his deposition from this post, the might-have-been reduction of bureaucracy and the houses’ renovation, sheltering of political refugees and flirting with the Labour party causes serious questions for the Homeland

Union about the consistency of its principles and promises. Well, the political attention of the conservatives to the State Security Department and “Leo LT” was programmed still during the electoral campaign.

The actions of the new-elected President Dalia Grybauskaitė are contradictory and unclear. There’s plenty of willingness to get distinguished, however, this willingness is too emotional and insufficiently reasoned in front of the society. Uncertain attitudes of the President (liberal, socialdemocratic, conservative?) show her willingness to stay

popular, just by displaying resolution (in questions regarding budget, State security department, the prisons of Central Intelligence Agency, previous politics), sometimes inconsistent resolution.

The foreign policies, run by D.Grybauskaitė, is still unsettled and often is, unfoundedly, based on the criticism of the previous foreign policy – did V.Adamkus just without a reason became a Man of a year in 2007? On one hand, the aim to orient towards the Nordic countries is welcomed. On the other hand, the willingness to make Lithuania into a silent member of the EU and NATO and to establish “more pragmatic” relations with the Eastern neighbours, especially with Russia, raises a question, what our values are and if our “red lines” are not retraceable.

I wouldn’t enjoy a fact, if Lithuania lost her independent and ambitious foreign policy or would damage her relationship with strategic partners like the USA. I have no doubts that after the unsuccessful search for the prisons of Central Intelligence Agency, Americans will have a much more careful approach towards cooperation with Lithuania. Let’s ask ourselves if we have a lot of alternatives and if a completely independent state can exist in reality or it’s only an ideal. We should not forget that we are living in a small state where the choice of the right partners an friends is a necessity.

What is waiting for us in the politics of 2010? Several variants out of many are possible. In 2010 in Lithuania will be no elections that could raise political activism. It is credible that the government of A.Kubilius, that enjoys a fragile majority [in the Parliament], will try to ensure itself a wider support, without which the reforms can be burdened or late. The possibilities of the Homeland Union, which has the biggest fraction in the Seimas, to dominate are not firm.

The previous pretensions of the aforementioned party to moral politics started to depreciate still in 2008 after creating a coalition with the so-called “subscriber” and “populist” forces, cursed by the Conservatives that in essence are the Trojan Horse. Nobody knows if there are friends or enemies inside them. Common actions of Liberal Centrists, Liberal Movement and People’s Resurrection flanks while trying to redistribute the posts and spheres of influence in the Government wouldn’t cause surprise.

One should also not reject a possibility that the increasing dissatisfaction among the Conservatives with the leader of the party can lead [the Speaker of the Seimas] Irena Degutienė to the Prime Minister’s post. The sympathies of the electorate for women (remember the cases of D. Grybauskaitė, Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, I. Degutienė) could be treated as extra favourable conditions for the Homeland Union to wait for a moment, when it will be possible to reduce the dissatisfaction with unpopular government and raise the falling ratings of the party.

The possibility of pre-elections is theoretical. There’s no willingness in the Seimas to release the Parliament, because in such a case the majority of the parties would lose their present positions or would get into the political margins. However, if the coalition due to its internal bickers would not solve problems, the solution for the stalemate that would arise afterwards would require for more decisive coalition.

It doesn’t look like the Social Democrats, as a second biggest force in the Seimas, could form a new government now. So far Lithuanian economy does not show signs of a consistent recovery and nobody wants to implement unpopular reforms especially those of limiting the expenses. Moreover, the internal frictions among the Social Democrats, the lost opportunity to get the post of the leader of opposition and the political sins, about which it is constantly reminded, do not give extra points.

The President’s relation to the current Government and the parliamentary majority, which is supporting it, should not change, because so far her flash initiatives were satisfied in almost all the cases, for which the governing majority had to change her positions almost 180 degrees to the other direction. The indulgence of the Prime Minister, which is the most powerful political figure, increases the space for the actions of the President. On the other hand, the governmental patience in a parliamentary republic is not long-lasting.

I wish meaningful and more bright New Year for everybody!

*Translated by Milda Bagdonaitė,  The commentary is published by courtesy of Mr Mindaugas Jurkynas.  The article was published by delfi.lt