One can observe an enthusiastic hurry to arrange funeral for the Government. Old scenarios are being revived and new ones are being created. One could expect this, especially when there’s no parliamentary session. Guesses about the changes of coalitions and the breakdown of the Governments are analysts’ daily bread as well as their professional deformation, however.

Let’s have a look at a newer scenario, according to which the breakdown of the Government can ostensibly be caused by the alternation of the ministers. After the change of more than a half of the ministers, the Government has to anew get its authority from the Seimas [Lithuanian parliament - M.B.]. Under the current conditions it would ostensibly be difficult. Four ministers have already changed, thus, the clock is ticking away for the Government.

When the calculations are false, it’s easier to announce the funeral for the Government. There Tomas Čyvas claims, that there’re 12 ministries. Maybe once upon a time it was like that, but now there’re 14 of them. So, in order to fulfil the requirements of the Constitution, that “more than a half of the ministers have to retreat”, 4 more ministers will have to do so. The Conservatives themselves have sent Algirdas Šemeta to Brussels and given the gate to Vygaudas Ušackas, and Rimantas Dagys haven’t got the “imprimatur” of the President. So far, the alternation of the ministers is still modest, and it will rather get slower than quicker.

It is written about increasing internal frictions in the ranks of the Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats (HU-LCD). It is an old and a handy topic for the futurologists of the politics. Last April I wrote about “the first cracks in the governing coalition” and talked about the increasing dissatisfaction of the National Revival Party (NRP) and the fraction of Liberal and Centre Union (LCU). More particular attention I showed for the unofficial HU-LCD grouping, which was complemented by the former “nationalists” and political prisoners and expatriates, belonging to the aforementioned fraction. I wrote that the grouping of categorical and maximalist deputies will cause a lot of problems to Andrius Kubilius. I was wrong.

Vladimiras Laučius who is wistfully waiting for the governmental breakdown, writes that the members of HU-LCD fraction understand that during the forthcoming elections of the Seimas the party can experience a fiasco, thus they will be less faithful for the party authorities. It’s a strange logic. There’s no place where the unsatisfied Conservatives could “run over”.

Understanding that only a third or a fourth of them will be re-elected only strengthens their loyalty, because the longer the Government holds down, the longer they remain in the Seimas. If the Government will hold down till the end of the cadence and the economy will recover, their chances to get to the Seimas again are markedly increasing. According to the results of the newest polls, the HU-LCD is again the most popular party, and this shows that the death of the Conservatives was announced too early. As well as the revolt in the party.

The other favourite topic is the frictions between the Prime Minister and the Speaker of the Seimas Mrs. Irena Degutienė that can ostensibly lead to the deposition of A.Kubilius. The Prime Minister and the Speaker had disagreements concerning the retreat of Algis Čaplikas and the resignation of V.Ušackas. Their opinions are not compatible also on other questions and the reason for this is not only tactical calculations.

It’s not necessary to put too much emphasis on this. The authorities of the Conservatives would behave in a more professional way if they would speak in unison on the most important questions. However, minor disagreements do not imply more serious, irrepressible frictions.

Even though sometimes I.Degutienė is too much concerned about public relations and her popularity, she is realistic and pragmatic, also – understanding that her political success depends on the success of the party. If she would face a temptation to take over the leadership for the HU-LCD, she understands that for the time being the push to the top would cause catastrophic consequences for the party. So, she is not encroaching on the Prime Minister’s post, even though she is in all probability seeking for a bigger role while forming party politics.

The situation of the Government is complex. NRP and LCU are not the most reliable partners and they can retreat from the governing coalition. It is even bigger probability that the single members will decide to join the other fractions. On the other hand, the governing coalition can be supported by single members of the Seimas or by small parties, such like Peasants- Populists. Their chairman lifted up his voice about the possibility to support the Government, especially in the case if it would correct its mistakes.

I do believe that the Government will survive but I am not sure about this. No guarantees exist in the politics. However, I know that the newly created coalition and the Government will be ineffective and will make Lithuania’s situation worse. The Government of A.Kubiliaus has made quite a few mistakes; however, it is not possible to deny its achievements that were recognized by some international organizations. We would not get similar results from its substitute.

The opposition is flashing about by accusations, reproaches and promises for a bright future. But it can not govern. On what ground could the Social Democrats, the “Christians” of Laimonas Dinius and Gediminas Vagnorius and the “Order and Justice” and the “labourists” get united? It is possible to create a blurred hybrid, but what kind of a programme this formation would have, what kind of novelties it would suggest and how it would avoid incoherence and contradictions?

It is easy to talk about intents to support the business, not to reduce pensions and other social allowances. However, it is not indicated how it will be possible to manage to deficit of the budget and at the same time not to increase the taxes. After forming a new government, money will not start pouring as manna from the Heaven.

A part of the suggestions, for example, the hints of the Social Democrats about the introduction of the progressive taxes, seem to be hypocritical. During those 12 years when the Social Democrats were governing Lithuania, nobody inhibited them to introduce progressive taxes or to strengthen the system of social security.

What is connecting the “Order and Justice” and the “labourites”? Maybe the fact that their leaders are currently sitting in Brussels, even though they do so because of not very respectable reasons. Rolandas Paksas is not entitled to be elected into any post in Lithuania, thus, there’s no other place, than Brussels where he could try to get. Viktor Uspaskich expects that the mandate of the European Parliament will provide him with immunity and will protect from the courts.

Having forgotten his escape to Russia and shameful press conference in Moscow, where he was dishing dirt on Lithuania, V.Uspaskichas is diligently trying to create an image of a big patriot. The last drop that could contribute to this would be, if he would start wearing tricolour suits or at least to use a three-colour tie. However, he does not really succeed to play the role of a patriot. In the advertisement, announced by “Delfi.lt” on the occasion of February the 16th he wrote “We love our Homeland by deeds, not by words” – these words of the Lithuanian hymn are often recalled, especially on solemn occasions”.

Correction to the advertisement is already made and the link to the hymn is removed. It is surprising, how a man, who is supposed to attend celebratory sessions so often, can fail to memorise the text of the hymn. However, I don’t think that this has happened due to too much of excitement.

Polemic remains to be polemic, however, one does not succeed to get an answer to a question, what is uniting the opposition, to what kind of common principles or unite vision of Lithuania could approve the parties that compose this opposition. And for how long the new union would last. At best, the new coalition would redistribute the portfolios and ministries, would take care of its possessions and would pray that everything would miraculously get together.

Maybe Lithuania is a country of miracles, but not such a kind of miracles.

*Translated by Milda Bagdonaitė *
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Doc. Dr. Kęstutis Girnius is a journalist, writer, political commentator, teaches at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University.  He is Harvard University graduate, worked for twenty years at the Radio Liberty.  The article was published on alfa.lt on 22 February.