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The Bank of Lithuania predicts Lithuania’s GDP to drop to 2005/4 level

On August 6 the Bank of Lithuania has issued an Economic Outlook for Lithuania. In this report the Bank predicts that Lithuania GDP should return to the level of 2005/4 before reaching bottom. The report projects further GDP fall by 5.2 percent in 2010.

‘The projected economic downturn in 2009, bringing Lithuania’s real GDP back to the 2004-2005 level (4-5 years backwards), is historically comparable. For example, Scandinavian countries in 1993 lost the real GDP gain of 5-6 years because of the credit crisis, in 1998 the economy of Indonesia returned to the level last seen 4-5 years ago, the same year Russia’s GDP was the lowest from the start of the statistical data calculation (1987).

The projected further 5.2 per cent fall of Lithuania’s GDP in the next year is associated with worse domestic demand trends due to still declining wages and an increased unemployment rate.’

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